US – During a panel on global trends at the International Pork and Poultry Show (SIAVS) in SÃ£o Paulo, James H Sumner, President of the USA Poultry & Egg Export Council (USAPEEC) and President of the International Poultry Council (IPC), addressed the impact of President Trumpâ€™s administration on global opportunities for US poultry.
US – During a panel on global trends at the International Pork and Poultry Show (SIAVS) in São Paulo, James H Sumner, President of the USA Poultry & Egg Export Council (USAPEEC) and President of the International Poultry Council (IPC), addressed the impact of President Trump’s administration on global opportunities for US poultry.
“A lot may be brought on by the news media. The media shows no mercy on Donald Trump. Though, of course, he brought some of that on himself.”
During his presentation on chicken and turkey production, Mr Sumner spoke about the ‘phenomenal’ growth of the global poultry industry, saying that the USAPEEC expects poultry production worldwide to overtake pork by 2030.
Global demand for chicken meat has increased by 91 per cent in the last two decades, or an average annual growth of 3.5 per cent, with global demand projected to increase by another 30 per cent in the next decade.
Brazil and the US currently have the lion’s share of world poultry exports, with two thirds of the market between them – the larger portion to Brazil.
Mr Sumner also discussed the global impact of avian influenza, with particular reference to the radical loss of poultry export value in the US following their 2014 AI outbreak, which amounted to over US$4.2 billion in 2015.
However, he said, response to the 2017 outbreak was much more measured, and that countries worldwide were learning to live with the increasingly ubiquitous threat of AI.
Regarding the ban currently in place on exporting US poultry to China due to the 2017 US AI outbreaks, Mr Sumner joked, “We are expecting that the ban will be lifted by the end of this year. If not, Donald Trump is going to be really upset.”
Mr Sumner ended his presentation by saying that ‘things have changed quite a lot recently due to this individual,’ accompanied by a slide showing an image of the US President.
“A lot of us still believe in the principles [of the administration],” he said. “We just don’t like the way they’ve been delivered.”
He suggested that areas of poultry trade that could be affected included Cuba, China, Russia, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).
Comparing the changing landscape of US broiler exports between 2009 and 2016, however, he suggested that the US has already had to adapt to a fast-changing set of international relationships and priorities.
In 2009, for example, the biggest single customer for US broiler meat was Russia (20.5 per cent of market), followed by China (19.9 per cent). In 2016 neither of these countries were trading with the US at all, replaced by Mexico (21.9 per cent) and Hong Kong (9.8 per cent).
Mr Sumner was questioned specifically about future trade partners for Mexico now that NAFTA is being renegotiated, and relations between Mexico and the US have deteriorated. He replied that he expected NAFTA to remain in place without significant changes.
“I think it’s primarily been a temporary issue,” he said.
“A lot may be brought on by the news media. The media shows no mercy on Donald Trump. Though of course he brought some of that on himself.
“Mexico is free to purchase from any country they please of course. But with our proximity to Mexico it is very difficult for any country to give Mexico a better deal [on poultry] than the United States.”