Global trade in chicken meat is expected to increase by 3 percent in 2018 to reach 11.4 million tons, according to forecasts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), outstripping the predicted 1 percent rise in total global broiler production, but growing at a slightly lower rate than in 2017.

Read the entire report about global chicken meat exports exclusively in the January issue of Poultry International.

Driven by growth in the global economy, which is expected to be stronger than in recent years, and which the World Bank is forecasting at close to 3 percent, poultry producers can expect a year of gains, whether focused on their home or overseas markets.

Several of the world’s leading poultry-producing countries, including Brazil, the EU, India, Thailand and the U.S., can expect to see higher output in 2018 and, for Brazil and the U.S. in particular, demand from export markets is expected to be particularly strong.

While disease is an ever-present risk, the world’s key poultry exporters are mostly disease free, meaning they should be well placed to respond to growing demand.

The exception this year will be China, whose exports are expected to decline by almost 4 percent in 2018, wiping out the increases made in 2017.

So what can the major chicken exporting countries expect in 2018?

With early 2017’s quality concerns now firmly behind it, Brazil will continue its well-trodden path of capturing new markets and gaining greater market share in 2018. Poultry meat exports from the U.S. are expected to grow by 3 percent this year, reaching 3.2 million tons. Like the U.S., European Union exports have been hit by disease outbreaks. Nevertheless, the European Commission forecasts that sales beyond the bloc’s borders will be higher in 2018, aided by the lifting of various trade embargoes. Thailand’s chicken meat production is expected to grow by 5 percent in 2018, while exports are forecast to be 4 percent higher, building on the export successes of 2017, and reaching 800,000 tons. China is expected to export 385,000 tons of poultry meat in 2018, a decline of 4 percent, and total broiler production is forecast to decline for the third year in a row.

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